The Republicans secured victory in Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. However, rather than rejoicing, many are anxious about its implications for the upcoming midterms.
Republican-elect Rep. Matt Van Epps’roughly nine point winsignals a significant move towards Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump won the district by 22 points. This double-digit shift—following major losses in the off-year elections in November—might indicate the challenges House Republicans could encounter in the upcoming midterms, according to members and strategists, as they try to maintain their slim majority in the chamber.
Tonight is an indication that the 2026 election season is going to be a tough one,” said a House Republican, who requested anonymity to speak freely. “Republicans can endure if we work together and Trump administration officials make wise decisions. Both outcomes are uncertain.
Democrat Aftyn Behn’s exceeding expectations in the Tennessee special election— which drew millions of dollars in spending and national attention in its last days — follows a pattern of troubling election outcomes for the Republicans. Earlier this year, Democrats experiencedsignificant outperformances in defeats in other special electionsin deeply red seats, and last month they won a series of important off-year elections, including governor races in Virginia and New Jersey.
Following those successes, some Republicans called on the White House toretool its political messageto more effectively connect with moderate voters and independents who supported Trump in the presidential election.
I’m happy we won. However, the GOP shouldn’t overlook the elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Tennessee,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who is leaving his competitive Omaha-based district. “We need to connect with swing voters. America is looking for some sense of normalcy.
House Republican leadership had been getting ready for the outcomes on Tuesday night. Although Speaker Mike Johnson’s team anticipated a closer-than-expected contest, the narrow single-digit difference was still difficult to accept, especially after national Republicans made every effort — including a Trump teleconference and Johnson’s trip to the district — to help Van Epps in the last days.
“it was too close,” said a republican house leadership advisor, who was also given anonymity to openly talk about the race.
Trump himself exuded confidence following the victory, commending Van Epps’ success. “The Extreme Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another fantastic night for the Republican Party!!!,”he posted on Truth Social.
However, Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and member of the initial Trump administration, stated that the single-digit lead for Van Epps maintains the momentum the Democrats are experiencing following the New Jersey and Virginia elections.
None of this is a good sign for the GOP in the upcoming midterms,” Bartlett stated. “Acting like a ostrich by ignoring the most important issues that concern Americans is not a plan, and certainly not a successful one.
Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) explicitly linked Van Epps’ poor performance to Democratic voters who were unhappy with Trump, and he urged Republicans to “sound the alarm” among Republican voters regarding the impact of losing control of the House and Senate.
“It was risky. We might have lost this area because the individuals who came, many of whom are driven by their strong opposition to President Trump,” Cruz stated during a Fox News interview on Tuesday night.
In a year, it will be a significant election, and the left will come out,” he added. “Hate is a strong driving force.
The voter turnout was exceptionally high for a special election, matching the level seen in the 2022 midterms. Van Epps received approximately 90 percent of the total votes that Republican Mark Green, whose departure led to the special election, secured that year, whereas Behn obtained more than 115 percent of the total votes the 2022 Democratic candidate received.
A Republican strategist, who wished to remain unidentified to speak freely, expressed concern that the outcome in Tennessee indicates that Republican voters are unlikely to vote in large numbers for candidates other than Trump — a challenge the party has faced before.
The Trump coalition is drawn in by the strength of his personality and his readiness to challenge the status quo. There’s little enthusiasm for backing other ‘politicians’ when Trump isn’t running,” the consultant stated. “The momentum is expected to work against Republicans in federal elections in 2026. Voters are seldom content these days and are seeking someone to hold accountable.
In a statement marking his win on Tuesday, Van Epps recognized Trump’s role in the campaign.
“Escaping Trump is how you lose. Supporting Trump is how you win,” he stated.
Before Tuesday’s election, National Republican Congressional Committee chair Rep. Richard Hudsonattempted to minimize the outcomes tried to reduce the significance of the findings aimed to lessen the impact of the results sought to diminish the importance of the outcomes tried to make the results seem less important attempted to de-emphasize the findings worked to downplay the consequences sought to lessen the visibility of the results tried to reduce the prominence of the outcomes attempted to minimize the effect of the resultsregarding an election that was expected to be unusually close, he informed House Republicans during a private meeting that special elections are different. Following Tuesday’s victory, he praised Van Epps, stating in a release, “no one is more prepared to carry on the legacy and achieve outcomes” for Tennessee.
However, after leaving that meeting, a House Republican mentioned that a close outcome might cause significant reactions within the House GOP group.
“If our margin of victory is in the single digits, the conference could lose control,” a House Republican stated before polls closed on Tuesday.
Elena Schneider and Lisa Kashinsky were involved in this report.
